Training for a marathon? You may have already been considering your possible marathon finishing time. So how long does it take to run a marathon, and what’s the best way to estimate a marathon time?
Finishing times for marathons (26.2 miles) range from a little over two hours for world-class, elite marathoners to 8+ hours for walkers. In the United States, the average marathon finishing time in 2019 for men in U.S. marathons was 4:30:46 (10:20/mile pace), according to RunRepeat. The median finishing time for women was 4:56:39 (11:19/mile pace).
How to Predict Your Marathon Time
Before running your marathon, it’s definitely helpful to have a rough estimate of your marathon finishing time, so you know how to pace yourself properly. But predicting race times, especially for marathons, can be tough because there are so many variables, such as weather and course conditions.
A quick formula that a lot of runners like to use is to take a recent half marathon time, double it, and then add 10 to 20 minutes, depending on the difficulty of the course.
Using a Marathon Time Prediction Calculator
You can also use race time prediction calculators to determine your marathon time, based on a recent race. You’ll most likely get a more realistic prediction if the race distance is close to 26.2 miles. For example, a recent half marathon time is a better indicator than a 5K time of how you’ll fare in a marathon.
For the most accurate prediction, you should use a race time from a race you’ve done about 4 to 6 weeks before your marathon. If it’s not that recent, your fitness level may have changed (for better or worse) and the times won’t be as accurate.
Also, if you’re running a local marathon, running a race within a few weeks before your marathon increases your chances of having similar weather conditions for both races, which will also make your time prediction more realistic. An added bonus is that you can test out your marathon outfit and determine if it’s suitable for the weather.
Here are a couple of good marathon time prediction calculators to try:
Run Hive Marathon Time Predictor: Just plug in the distance and your time from a longer and shorter race, as well as your age, sex, and weekly training mileage. The calculator then shows you how you might perform in your marathon.
MarathonGuide.com Race Results Prediction: Choose a distance and a time to calculate theoretical race results at different distances and check out your marathon prediction.
Once you have an estimated time, use a Pace Calculator to figure out the average pace for that time.
Can I Really Run that Predicted Marathon Time?
Keep in mind that a predicted marathon time is not a guarantee. You have to do the appropriate endurance training for a marathon, especially regular long runs. There are lots of other factors — course difficulty, weather conditions, nutrition and hydration, how you’re feeling — that come into play. In most cases, only experienced marathoners achieve their predicted time or very close to it.
If you’re running your first marathon, focus on completing the race and finishing strong. Regardless of your time, finishing a marathon is an incredible achievement. If you’re looking for a ballpark finishing time prediction for your first marathon, add 5-6% to the calculator prediction.
More About Marathon Finishing Times
If you’re curious where you might end up finishing (top 25%, age group winner, etc.) in a particular marathon, look at the online results from last year’s race. The range of finishing times and the number of participants will probably be similar this year.
Some marathons do have time limits, such as six or seven hours (although others have no limit). So, if you’re a slower runner or walker, find out if there’s a cut-off time when picking a marathon.
More Marathon Running Advice
- Top 10 Marathon Fears and How to Get Over Them
- 10 Marathon Mistakes to Avoid
- Mental Tips for Running a Marathon
- Marathon Packing List
- How to Finish Strong in a Marathon
